Hello all.
The past few months have been exceptionally difficult and I am only now beginning to get some degree of normality back.
Given the abuse this blog has seen since my last login, it makes me think if a blog is the way forward. I have had it with the scammers, links posted that have nothing to do with what you or I am talking about, and if some better means is open to me to keep going.
Would a forum be better, what do you think?
Where this goes is in your hands and I will take all the advice I receive and look into the most popular suggestion.
Regarding what to put in the new means, what would you like to see?
Perhaps:
A weekly round up
What to look for in the coming week
A list of the most common traded instruments broken down as above?
A dedicated topic for each pair or instrument to allow folks give their views?
A more general topic for those seeking help.
Above all, I have to get rid of the abusive nature of folks on the Internet who hinder creative thought and take time away from the intended purpose.
I look forward to reading your thoughts!
An addition to this post is moderation to all comments to help get rid of the scammers and con artists is now in place. All genuine comments will be let through and the others binned and I hope a ban would also work, if I can find a way to do that.
I will update this post again later in the coming week so that you know whats going on. In the mean time I will post up a new chart and walk you through it.
Thursday, 16 August 2018
Thursday, 7 September 2017
eur/usd Sept 7 2017 update
Ok time for an update on the last eur/usd post. Lets see how it has developed and if the pair are playing out with the same long bias as before.
First chart is the monthly.
Looking at the right hand edge of the chart I can noted three candles. 1 is a push through of the top of the established range, 2 is not an uncommon candle and appears to be indecision, but it does close above the previous candle which is bullish. 3 is still forming and far too early to call. Above and left of price is where pro money shorted the pair back in May 2014. While all this may seem to be light years away, these price areas are clearly of interest to pro money and its best to be highly tuned to what takes place in them when price gets into them in the future. There are several types of pro money folks and it is the investor type who will become involved in this areas and hold for long periods of time and take the long term view. The daily price moves below the daily are nothing but noise to these people.
Far too many day traders also look and place too much decision making on time frames below 4hr. That is the ideal way to go broke.
Weekly chart.
Upper left is pro money shorting the market and the nice fall away to their target area. The bottom of a price range formed here and has had three tests of its lows and the most recent test will look like a bearish break out to day traders. Again, another nice way to go broke. The higher time frames is where you see the best clarity.
The blue line is the upper portion of the range and we have broken through and seen a failed test of the top of the range, only for that test to itself be false. The dip inside the range will again look like a bearish trip to the bottom of the range and many day traders get taken out. Price did close outside of the top of the range after and a strong move higher following that false bearish week.
FB is just short hand for false break, I try not to shorten words where possible and keep a chart clear and make it easier to see and read. The second last candle breaks the strong bullish candle and will have gotten day traders long as they will have seen continuation. It turned against them as I would have expected to take out stops, get shorts in the market and in turn, have them taken out again once the new price direction continues.
You should start seeing how pro money will milk the market of every chance it gets to get cheap orders in the market, by taking yours. This happens every day and will continue to do so as long as folks dont wait for established areas to be used again by pro money to load up.
An accurate old saying still holds true, buy low and sell high.
Daily chart
Blue line shows the old high price of the upper portion of the established price range. We have now seen price break through it and come back to test this upper range. There are a few tails on candles showing price pushes into the range where some day traders on low time frames will have been duped.
On the upper most candle we see a low close and selling came back into the market. The function of that candle was many, it tested how much selling would happen, it got day traders short, it brought price back into the origin of the bullish move up, and it stopped out day trader shorts, filled new pro money longs at the best price at the time.
At the current candle price we see it push into the area of where the FB candle topped out. If no major short reaction takes place, then price wont have much effort in making higher prices.
4hr chart.
A little closer in on the action here, and we can see the push higher and notice one interesting fact. The price action shown is not major selling. It has been more orderly and controlled. The price ends up at the origin and and reacts nicely, not a bear to the seen!
Soon after a nice upward thrusting candle pins the most recent sell off and takes out most of the short orders there and allows price rise with no major selling coming in. This is good news for the bulls.
1hr chart.
Lower blue indicates the upper price range tested and held. A large bullish candle spikes short term supply and assists price in getting back into the lower range of the candles that have risen from the upper price range test. The sellers will now have lesser ability to push price lower and some positioning has to be done by pro money to feed in orders where they can and where it wont be seen for an extended period of time. This is what sets up in where the choppy price action follows for some time. The lack of supply is the most helpful guide we have here.
Lastly, the last few candles show strong price movement upward and a close above the spike with little reaction short. This can only be good for higher prices.
The most obvious target will be the prices left of the chart could lead us into the close of the market this coming Friday.
First chart is the monthly.
Looking at the right hand edge of the chart I can noted three candles. 1 is a push through of the top of the established range, 2 is not an uncommon candle and appears to be indecision, but it does close above the previous candle which is bullish. 3 is still forming and far too early to call. Above and left of price is where pro money shorted the pair back in May 2014. While all this may seem to be light years away, these price areas are clearly of interest to pro money and its best to be highly tuned to what takes place in them when price gets into them in the future. There are several types of pro money folks and it is the investor type who will become involved in this areas and hold for long periods of time and take the long term view. The daily price moves below the daily are nothing but noise to these people.
Far too many day traders also look and place too much decision making on time frames below 4hr. That is the ideal way to go broke.
Weekly chart.
Upper left is pro money shorting the market and the nice fall away to their target area. The bottom of a price range formed here and has had three tests of its lows and the most recent test will look like a bearish break out to day traders. Again, another nice way to go broke. The higher time frames is where you see the best clarity.
The blue line is the upper portion of the range and we have broken through and seen a failed test of the top of the range, only for that test to itself be false. The dip inside the range will again look like a bearish trip to the bottom of the range and many day traders get taken out. Price did close outside of the top of the range after and a strong move higher following that false bearish week.
FB is just short hand for false break, I try not to shorten words where possible and keep a chart clear and make it easier to see and read. The second last candle breaks the strong bullish candle and will have gotten day traders long as they will have seen continuation. It turned against them as I would have expected to take out stops, get shorts in the market and in turn, have them taken out again once the new price direction continues.
You should start seeing how pro money will milk the market of every chance it gets to get cheap orders in the market, by taking yours. This happens every day and will continue to do so as long as folks dont wait for established areas to be used again by pro money to load up.
An accurate old saying still holds true, buy low and sell high.
Daily chart
Blue line shows the old high price of the upper portion of the established price range. We have now seen price break through it and come back to test this upper range. There are a few tails on candles showing price pushes into the range where some day traders on low time frames will have been duped.
On the upper most candle we see a low close and selling came back into the market. The function of that candle was many, it tested how much selling would happen, it got day traders short, it brought price back into the origin of the bullish move up, and it stopped out day trader shorts, filled new pro money longs at the best price at the time.
At the current candle price we see it push into the area of where the FB candle topped out. If no major short reaction takes place, then price wont have much effort in making higher prices.
4hr chart.
A little closer in on the action here, and we can see the push higher and notice one interesting fact. The price action shown is not major selling. It has been more orderly and controlled. The price ends up at the origin and and reacts nicely, not a bear to the seen!
Soon after a nice upward thrusting candle pins the most recent sell off and takes out most of the short orders there and allows price rise with no major selling coming in. This is good news for the bulls.
1hr chart.
Lower blue indicates the upper price range tested and held. A large bullish candle spikes short term supply and assists price in getting back into the lower range of the candles that have risen from the upper price range test. The sellers will now have lesser ability to push price lower and some positioning has to be done by pro money to feed in orders where they can and where it wont be seen for an extended period of time. This is what sets up in where the choppy price action follows for some time. The lack of supply is the most helpful guide we have here.
Lastly, the last few candles show strong price movement upward and a close above the spike with little reaction short. This can only be good for higher prices.
The most obvious target will be the prices left of the chart could lead us into the close of the market this coming Friday.
Wednesday, 26 July 2017
Eur/Usd
After much delay I am finally getting back to putting some posts here for you all. Lets get stuck in and get back to the Euro/Usd and see how it is looking.
First up is the ten mile high view based on the monthly chart and get a wide look back through price history and see what stands out.
A price chart never lies or will spin you some story you hear from vested interest folks. Always look at what is obvious and clear. What is obvious here is price rose from the lower left to a high in the middle of the chart, then price fell sharply, recovered and fell sharply again. The next rise in price was laboured and so was its subsequent fall. Looking at the low part of each of the three attempts to rise shows us something interesting on the final attempt to rise. The time taken to rise was longer than all the previous attempts following the main fall in price from the middle of the chart, and we only from this last painfully slow rise do we see a clean, clear and obvious fall in price where no bullish activity of note took place.
At the end of that fall in price we see a narrow range relative to this time frame as been established and only now is price approaching the top of this range. The blue line indicates the upper part of the range and an area we as day traders need to start paying attention.
Next time frame, the weekly.
More intel comes to us, the blue line clearly shows the top of the range established on the monthly chart. Ignore the tiny red candle, it is only forming and not yet completed its journey through time. Its reaction so far gives us more information and as we drop down through other time frames we will get more and more intel to work from.
I have placed a tick mark showing an area of interest that will be on our radar if we see price break the established range and later test it, we want to be aware of areas of price support and profit targets well ahead of time. We now can see where price should get support if the range is going to be broken and tested, and we also see where a likely price area for profit around 500 points north.
Now we move to the daily time frame.
A short description but a telling one. The blue line is the top of our discovered price range and price has bounced off it and fallen back. We can say with full conviction that the range has not been broken. Ah, but the eagled eyed of you will say, hold on a second. What is the yellow line, this line is a second price area just below the high of the range denoted by the blue line. I drew in the yellow line to attract your eye to something worthy of note. The more nearer term high from the yellow line could be a good place for price to gain support from buyers who could send it with enough force up through the higher up blue line. It will be less of an effort for price to rise if this happens. Less effort means less cost and less cost means more profit, and more profit means pro money is happier to take the trade higher and break the range. But, we wait and see and keep an eye on how price reacts.
As the time frames go lower we see more and more of the methods of pro money.
Next we look at the 4hr time frame.
Between the two lines there is around 90 points. The second last candle shows how price pinned the lower end of this smaller range and closed higher up on the candle body and only a moderate amount of selling coming in. The way in which the selling came in wont be seen until we drop lower down in time. So lets move on.
1hr time frame.
An even clearer picture of price hitting the lower end of the price range with a bearish candle closing with buyers coming in, and the following candle closing bullish and the 3rd last candle closing with some sellers coming in, but not enough to push price back down given the later candles all closing with activity at their upper ends. So far, no major selling coming in. But look at the huge effort by pro money to push price higher in the box, that was a serious effort and not one that will fail without a fight. The fight of choice is now apparent, it is to tire out and try false breaks to gain enough orders enabling pro money to push again. This is not yet proven, and we need to wait, bit so far everything they are doing is bullish.
Lets drop down again.
30 min time frame.
Final chart given we are in a trading range. Price has risen toward the right edge and is in a holding mode. No major selling, no major buying and someone will have to give soon. Perhaps coming into the London close will see a retest of the lows or maybe a false bearish break, we simply dont know yet and must exercise patience and trade what we see. Some news driven even may be enough to bust price out and then we watch for a test where the loosing side gives up and the pro's take it from there.
First up is the ten mile high view based on the monthly chart and get a wide look back through price history and see what stands out.
A price chart never lies or will spin you some story you hear from vested interest folks. Always look at what is obvious and clear. What is obvious here is price rose from the lower left to a high in the middle of the chart, then price fell sharply, recovered and fell sharply again. The next rise in price was laboured and so was its subsequent fall. Looking at the low part of each of the three attempts to rise shows us something interesting on the final attempt to rise. The time taken to rise was longer than all the previous attempts following the main fall in price from the middle of the chart, and we only from this last painfully slow rise do we see a clean, clear and obvious fall in price where no bullish activity of note took place.
At the end of that fall in price we see a narrow range relative to this time frame as been established and only now is price approaching the top of this range. The blue line indicates the upper part of the range and an area we as day traders need to start paying attention.
Next time frame, the weekly.
More intel comes to us, the blue line clearly shows the top of the range established on the monthly chart. Ignore the tiny red candle, it is only forming and not yet completed its journey through time. Its reaction so far gives us more information and as we drop down through other time frames we will get more and more intel to work from.
I have placed a tick mark showing an area of interest that will be on our radar if we see price break the established range and later test it, we want to be aware of areas of price support and profit targets well ahead of time. We now can see where price should get support if the range is going to be broken and tested, and we also see where a likely price area for profit around 500 points north.
Now we move to the daily time frame.
A short description but a telling one. The blue line is the top of our discovered price range and price has bounced off it and fallen back. We can say with full conviction that the range has not been broken. Ah, but the eagled eyed of you will say, hold on a second. What is the yellow line, this line is a second price area just below the high of the range denoted by the blue line. I drew in the yellow line to attract your eye to something worthy of note. The more nearer term high from the yellow line could be a good place for price to gain support from buyers who could send it with enough force up through the higher up blue line. It will be less of an effort for price to rise if this happens. Less effort means less cost and less cost means more profit, and more profit means pro money is happier to take the trade higher and break the range. But, we wait and see and keep an eye on how price reacts.
As the time frames go lower we see more and more of the methods of pro money.
Next we look at the 4hr time frame.
Between the two lines there is around 90 points. The second last candle shows how price pinned the lower end of this smaller range and closed higher up on the candle body and only a moderate amount of selling coming in. The way in which the selling came in wont be seen until we drop lower down in time. So lets move on.
1hr time frame.
An even clearer picture of price hitting the lower end of the price range with a bearish candle closing with buyers coming in, and the following candle closing bullish and the 3rd last candle closing with some sellers coming in, but not enough to push price back down given the later candles all closing with activity at their upper ends. So far, no major selling coming in. But look at the huge effort by pro money to push price higher in the box, that was a serious effort and not one that will fail without a fight. The fight of choice is now apparent, it is to tire out and try false breaks to gain enough orders enabling pro money to push again. This is not yet proven, and we need to wait, bit so far everything they are doing is bullish.
Lets drop down again.
30 min time frame.
Final chart given we are in a trading range. Price has risen toward the right edge and is in a holding mode. No major selling, no major buying and someone will have to give soon. Perhaps coming into the London close will see a retest of the lows or maybe a false bearish break, we simply dont know yet and must exercise patience and trade what we see. Some news driven even may be enough to bust price out and then we watch for a test where the loosing side gives up and the pro's take it from there.
Monday, 10 April 2017
extended break
Hello all,
Had a much needed break over Christmas and went on an extended trip to Asia and it is now back to normality once again and hitting the charts.
I will post some charts and thoughts up very soon.
Had a much needed break over Christmas and went on an extended trip to Asia and it is now back to normality once again and hitting the charts.
I will post some charts and thoughts up very soon.
Wednesday, 19 October 2016
Silver walk through
In giving this view of Silver it will be of use for other instruments and reading their charts.
This is the weekly chart of Silver.
The immediate task is to determine if price is in a trend or in a range. What we see was a bearish trend that slowed down, the pulled back up into supply and is now going back in the direction of the original trend. Our bias on this chart on its own is bearish.
Daily chart.
On the left you see a strong move up out of what will look like resistance to day traders and given it lasted a number of days, there will be break out traders, new bullish longs each day and all delighted with their entries. The real danger was in not reading the big picture. The idea was for pro money to get price back into an area where they can filter in more short orders while the herd is in full buy mode. Lots of orders get filled without price moving much against pro money. And that is the ideal place to be. This method has not changed since instruments have been traded. Too many day traders get caught in the moment.
As price made a poor fall away from supply, there was a considerable period of time taken before we eventually reached the most near term demand. But note how the area was pierced deeply. That shows little in the way of bullish support and has setup a small range. Lets dig deeper.
4hr chart.
From this time frame a clearer picture is emerging. We can see price falling and hitting what looks like support. But its support in an unusual place, but never the less we will still call it 'come kind' of support because price did bounce. We also see that the buyers are not there in great numbers based on price action alone. The most recent jump in price where the 2nd last candle shows buying...was no more than pushing price into the supply area. And the very last candle shows sellers stepping in and taking it lower, and from a place where I would expect genuine selling and not herd control by pro money.
There is a range of around 60 points in this and plenty room for the pro's to consider taking it lower. There is nothing to show serious buying and the bias is still bearish.
And finally the 1hr.
This is about the only reasonable attempt I can give on an active market. We clearly see the supply on the top left and reaction to it on the top right. All is behaving normal here and as I type the last candle is near closed and is pushing down to its lows, all good signs of pro selling and the London close is upon me in 10 minutes. Given it is late in the day it wont surprise me to see price go back up with profit taking and the real bearish move happen another day or if the NY session can get back into 1hr supply and then go back down.
There is a small area below current price marked by a red line. I am expecting something to happen here. It is mid range and if we can break it, I hope the horrible price action below it can get taken out and the bottom of the range tested. Ideally in the longer I want to see Silver and Gold fall a good deal further.
It was October 11th when the sellers first showed up and its taken a full week for price to get back there and more selling take place. The time within these two events is when you need to learn to be patient and let price do its thing and work its way into an area where we become interested. You can never force a trade and trying will burn you. Within ranges is also where you do not trade.
The actions of pro money are not complex, they only become active when the price is in their favor and they typical shed orders slowly into mania that the herd react too. Such as break outs that turn out to be false, news events which are complete nonsense and no pro trader ever reacts to them. Little catches pro money off guard.
Pro money filter in their orders where you wont see it until price is moved by them. Eventually their activity is so over whelming that they can no longer get more orders placed, or larger orders get placed by additional traders that creates the move away. If you do touch trades you have the highest reward and also the highest risk, if you wait for price to retrace you get a lower reward and a lower risk, but there is pretty much always some form of a pull back or retrace if you wait for it. Such as what we saw in the Silver chart.
This is the weekly chart of Silver.
The immediate task is to determine if price is in a trend or in a range. What we see was a bearish trend that slowed down, the pulled back up into supply and is now going back in the direction of the original trend. Our bias on this chart on its own is bearish.
Daily chart.
On the left you see a strong move up out of what will look like resistance to day traders and given it lasted a number of days, there will be break out traders, new bullish longs each day and all delighted with their entries. The real danger was in not reading the big picture. The idea was for pro money to get price back into an area where they can filter in more short orders while the herd is in full buy mode. Lots of orders get filled without price moving much against pro money. And that is the ideal place to be. This method has not changed since instruments have been traded. Too many day traders get caught in the moment.
As price made a poor fall away from supply, there was a considerable period of time taken before we eventually reached the most near term demand. But note how the area was pierced deeply. That shows little in the way of bullish support and has setup a small range. Lets dig deeper.
4hr chart.
From this time frame a clearer picture is emerging. We can see price falling and hitting what looks like support. But its support in an unusual place, but never the less we will still call it 'come kind' of support because price did bounce. We also see that the buyers are not there in great numbers based on price action alone. The most recent jump in price where the 2nd last candle shows buying...was no more than pushing price into the supply area. And the very last candle shows sellers stepping in and taking it lower, and from a place where I would expect genuine selling and not herd control by pro money.
There is a range of around 60 points in this and plenty room for the pro's to consider taking it lower. There is nothing to show serious buying and the bias is still bearish.
And finally the 1hr.
This is about the only reasonable attempt I can give on an active market. We clearly see the supply on the top left and reaction to it on the top right. All is behaving normal here and as I type the last candle is near closed and is pushing down to its lows, all good signs of pro selling and the London close is upon me in 10 minutes. Given it is late in the day it wont surprise me to see price go back up with profit taking and the real bearish move happen another day or if the NY session can get back into 1hr supply and then go back down.
There is a small area below current price marked by a red line. I am expecting something to happen here. It is mid range and if we can break it, I hope the horrible price action below it can get taken out and the bottom of the range tested. Ideally in the longer I want to see Silver and Gold fall a good deal further.
It was October 11th when the sellers first showed up and its taken a full week for price to get back there and more selling take place. The time within these two events is when you need to learn to be patient and let price do its thing and work its way into an area where we become interested. You can never force a trade and trying will burn you. Within ranges is also where you do not trade.
The actions of pro money are not complex, they only become active when the price is in their favor and they typical shed orders slowly into mania that the herd react too. Such as break outs that turn out to be false, news events which are complete nonsense and no pro trader ever reacts to them. Little catches pro money off guard.
Pro money filter in their orders where you wont see it until price is moved by them. Eventually their activity is so over whelming that they can no longer get more orders placed, or larger orders get placed by additional traders that creates the move away. If you do touch trades you have the highest reward and also the highest risk, if you wait for price to retrace you get a lower reward and a lower risk, but there is pretty much always some form of a pull back or retrace if you wait for it. Such as what we saw in the Silver chart.
Saturday, 15 October 2016
Last trade of the week
Last trade of the week.
I briefly mentioned this in a previous reply to a comment and here is the last trade taken this past week. It was a eur/usd short and I closed it manually because I was called away prior to the market close and did not want the trades to remain over the weekend if my target did not get hit before the market close.
I decided that the 12 point loss of profit was better to take than giving back the previous 160 points per trade. The price may now bounce close to where I had my target and my expectation is that price will continue lower at some future time from there. But we must wait and see if this is the case.
The bottom of a range wont be much further below the target area and while shorting in that makes sense, be fully aware than major buying did come in earlier this year. Some of those orders and interest will be long gone, but some will appear again and keep your eye on them.
I briefly mentioned this in a previous reply to a comment and here is the last trade taken this past week. It was a eur/usd short and I closed it manually because I was called away prior to the market close and did not want the trades to remain over the weekend if my target did not get hit before the market close.
I decided that the 12 point loss of profit was better to take than giving back the previous 160 points per trade. The price may now bounce close to where I had my target and my expectation is that price will continue lower at some future time from there. But we must wait and see if this is the case.
The bottom of a range wont be much further below the target area and while shorting in that makes sense, be fully aware than major buying did come in earlier this year. Some of those orders and interest will be long gone, but some will appear again and keep your eye on them.
Sunday, 9 October 2016
Long John Silver
With a title such as that, there may be the makings of a new Pirate movie in this post, but alas, it is merely said in jest as it to chase fools Gold listening to what comes out the media mouth pieces.
A little history lesson to show where we were when the media and their pay masters told us to buy. The daily chart shows all the major details we need.
At the top of the chart is the infamous area where the expert in Silver trading told us all to buy because the price was shooting up. At the time I called doo doo on this and history has shown my words to be the most reasonable. Experience teaches us all valuable lessons and this one was in my eyes, a real class and expected message from a trader who was in desperate need of getting him and his fellow traders out of their long positions. Good trading advice neither comes for free or from the media. Buying at high prices goes against what pro money does and should also be against what you do. You only ever buy low and sell high if you can see room for profit, clear targets for stop loss and profit and only after pro money show they are involved.
The initial move up on this time frame has recently been hit by falling prices, but look at the reaction. Price has fallen well into the area where pro money finaly pushed price up out of a range, and now the weekly and daily chart show weakness. The very last candle close of the week shows some selling into the close. We will zoom in closer on this next.
4hr chart.
Looking at the most recent price action there was a strong move down and bought into, but the buying was sustained over a period of time indicating pro money wanted to stop the down move and pull price back up. When price moved back up in reached near term supply on the 3rd last candle. As expected sellers came back into the market in larger numbers. I say sellers with regards to the amount of sell orders.
A reaction to this selling was more buying and we closed near the high of the last candle. We know the main force behind silver is short and the amount of buying gone in needs to be further tested for the presence of selling. If the top of the 4rd last candle is tested and no sellers come in, then price is likely to rise further and potentially into the blue line I have drawn in. This looks like no mans land, but its a major area of interest to pro money if the 3rd last candle is broken.
Pro money needs lots of opposing orders to get the cheapest entry price and make it appear price will continue to rise. None of us know how long it will take for price to climb back up to where enough sell orders have been placed into the market. But using some logical thought, we know the main use for Silver is an industrial metal for plating in electronic etc. Looking at that sector I do not see (and pardon the pun) any silver lining and the main US trade indices do not show much growth or good news there either. So the value in silver is pretty much for the bears at the moment.
The blue line is NOT a fixed price, it is an price area and there will be some wiggle room around it. As price gets into the area where pro money are interested, price will become erratic on lower time frames. That is order flow, plain n simple.
And for some show and tell.........the 30min chart ahead of time.
My blue line at the same price area.....and what do you know, a little price are where price took a double step before falling lower in the past. So you too watch this area if price makes it back. This is part of the price area where I will watch with great interest. The indicator traders out there will see their whizz bang stuff telling them to buy, media pimping silver is on a tear and we on the other hand, sit and wait to see will sellers come in and if they do, we will know where and why. Its better to get to watch a story unfold where you almost can see the outcome before hand.
So now, you watch wait and be patient. The trade will come to you if you let it, and trade what you see and not what you think.
A little history lesson to show where we were when the media and their pay masters told us to buy. The daily chart shows all the major details we need.
At the top of the chart is the infamous area where the expert in Silver trading told us all to buy because the price was shooting up. At the time I called doo doo on this and history has shown my words to be the most reasonable. Experience teaches us all valuable lessons and this one was in my eyes, a real class and expected message from a trader who was in desperate need of getting him and his fellow traders out of their long positions. Good trading advice neither comes for free or from the media. Buying at high prices goes against what pro money does and should also be against what you do. You only ever buy low and sell high if you can see room for profit, clear targets for stop loss and profit and only after pro money show they are involved.
The initial move up on this time frame has recently been hit by falling prices, but look at the reaction. Price has fallen well into the area where pro money finaly pushed price up out of a range, and now the weekly and daily chart show weakness. The very last candle close of the week shows some selling into the close. We will zoom in closer on this next.
4hr chart.
Looking at the most recent price action there was a strong move down and bought into, but the buying was sustained over a period of time indicating pro money wanted to stop the down move and pull price back up. When price moved back up in reached near term supply on the 3rd last candle. As expected sellers came back into the market in larger numbers. I say sellers with regards to the amount of sell orders.
A reaction to this selling was more buying and we closed near the high of the last candle. We know the main force behind silver is short and the amount of buying gone in needs to be further tested for the presence of selling. If the top of the 4rd last candle is tested and no sellers come in, then price is likely to rise further and potentially into the blue line I have drawn in. This looks like no mans land, but its a major area of interest to pro money if the 3rd last candle is broken.
Pro money needs lots of opposing orders to get the cheapest entry price and make it appear price will continue to rise. None of us know how long it will take for price to climb back up to where enough sell orders have been placed into the market. But using some logical thought, we know the main use for Silver is an industrial metal for plating in electronic etc. Looking at that sector I do not see (and pardon the pun) any silver lining and the main US trade indices do not show much growth or good news there either. So the value in silver is pretty much for the bears at the moment.
The blue line is NOT a fixed price, it is an price area and there will be some wiggle room around it. As price gets into the area where pro money are interested, price will become erratic on lower time frames. That is order flow, plain n simple.
And for some show and tell.........the 30min chart ahead of time.
My blue line at the same price area.....and what do you know, a little price are where price took a double step before falling lower in the past. So you too watch this area if price makes it back. This is part of the price area where I will watch with great interest. The indicator traders out there will see their whizz bang stuff telling them to buy, media pimping silver is on a tear and we on the other hand, sit and wait to see will sellers come in and if they do, we will know where and why. Its better to get to watch a story unfold where you almost can see the outcome before hand.
So now, you watch wait and be patient. The trade will come to you if you let it, and trade what you see and not what you think.
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