eur/gbp

An overview of eur/gbp and a sign of things to come.

First up we look at the monthly chart.

I placed three red horizontal lines to show support and resistance areas. All look good to my eye and as seen with the upper line, there has been one touch on this as price fell. The reaction was a lower time frame bullish move and the message to keep in mind is that it was a reaction to unfilled orders and not a change in trend or sentiment.

I have a blue line showing the strong bullish intent taken off the base of the lowest S/R line and the cheapest price for pro money to push this. The box is where the retest came in and was early and unclear until the tiny red doji candle closed. To most traders that showed more upside and potential for breaking through the mid red line, and after a short retracement price pushed strongly up through and it was only a matter of waiting patiently while the pro's shot for the moon and the herd as you can clearly see responded. The pro's had all their work dont and the target was hit hard and the profit taking and closed positions came in rather violently.

 

Weekly chart.

I have drawn a red line to show near term price reaction and a place where further shorts may be possible. The lowest line is from our above chart and given the mess price made when it left that area, there was no intention to push higher and the long game is over.

The blue line again shows the rush of emotion fed to retail traders to get more longs for the pro's to sell against. Any time you see price in this parabolic move, get ready to bail!

Daily chart.

A few more red lines to help concentrate your brain. Of note is how price blew right through the candle where I have placed a tick. With so many short orders flooding in, and at the end of the day/week and month, we can get strong moves happening and positioning for the next week/month/quarter.

The blue line would be a good place to get traders into short lived longs, it has been untested and it is not unknown for price to get pushed to where it gives best effect to sell into. There are no signs of any additional bullish activity coming in and the unwind and new positions take time to get itno the market when major market turns are happening. We wont know for sure if this is so until we can see clearly breaks of major support and no buyers stepping in where any up move is sold into either by absorbing the buyers quickly, or over time. It is a matter of how much short orders remain to be filled before the big push.

4hr chart.


First thing to note here is how deep price had to go back down into old buy orders before it had enough push to reach the target. The candle with the tick is now even more obvious in what its function was, it got retail buyers involved for a short period of time and gave pro money four good days to close out.

The candle lower left is where we may see something happen, but given it is so close to short term target below there is the possibility of it being of no interest. The lowest red line is where the real action will likely take place.
 

1hr chart


Depending on how the market moves next week, any pull back in the near term has a small box above current price for adding more orders. Nobody knows how this will play out until it happens and for the moment we make ourselves aware of where are places to look for in the event of a pull back or short term reversal and knowing the higher time frames are showing bearish strength.
 

euro/usd with chart

I have an MT4 client setup and now I can post some charts again.

These are my thoughts on the Euro and how it has played out last week.

Daily time frame showing the significant demand at the bottom of the chart. We have punched into the area to over 50% of its historic orders and there is room for a further push if the bulls wish to take this higher. Such a move would be touted as bearish and nothing more than a continuation, but do keep in mind the view of the herd who blindly follow price when it moves in jumps. We know this is a place where pro money will want to take it long and have to keep an open mind for this.
 
The lower red line is the lowest price made and there is still more more left if they wish to try again and a second dip into or beyond the blue box is possible.

4hr chart.

Starting from the bottom right and working up I can see there was a second attempt to push lower and this resulted in a higher close on what looks to be long bearish candle. This was a test to see were more sellers willing to take it, clearly there were none. Given that the sellers have been removed it now made an easy unobstructed path for price to rise with great ease. The last 4 candles show just how easy price has risen and nailed near term supply to the top of the small range formation. The last candle shows no major sell off.

The two horizontal lines are the two areas most likely to hold price up on its journey. Breaking the lower will be good to see being later tested to see will it hold. The upper line is where we have to wait and see what strength is left in the bulls. The targets I marked up are candles, it is the range of these candles is where the bulk of the profit will be. The lower one has a small bullish candle with a long tail, clearly lots of buyers came in and there are trapped and will only be wishing and hoping for price to come back to them in order to get out at break even or for a small profit, expect a reaction there.

1hr chart.


A few things to point out here. At the bottom of the chart on the left is a long bearish candle which is in reality bullish, we know this based on the tail, reaction and close of the subsequent candles and the same candle range being tested later on. To further seal the deal the test candle was tested, a clear sign pro money want to know if all sellers are worn out or taken out before they go about their real task.

The last few hours really tell the story, a strong move up and beyond near term supply and price being held and all shorts being bought into. Timing is everything and given Asia and Europe will open first next week, dont expect the near term make up of the market to be maintained, it often drifts off until London opens and this is where the major worlds trading is conducted.

And for a last look at where we are, here is the weekly chart. Normally you would look at this time frame first and I have it here so that you can see where the major swings have happened in the past. There are more pockets of demand further down in price, but if we go down, we first must rise and vice versa.

eur/usd

My experimenting with  a web trading platform is coming to an end. This is yet another weekend where I cannot pull up any charts and do some useful work. Needless to say for my sanity I will not continue with it and unfortunately return to a Windows based client.

I cannot post a chart to show you what I want to make you aware of, and instead this brief post is to make you aware of the euro price is now down into November 2013 lows. We can expect a bounce here and there may be some good points in the move. As always, watch for pro money activity and any further leg down will result in a rapid move and may be no more than taking out stops and getting a cheap price on a bullish move.

Draw some lines on the 2013 lows and watch price action around them, if you have a futures account, keep an eye on volume as well.

Keep in mind that pro money buys in strong down moves and sells in strong up moves. The larger time frames are full of this and when approaching those levels pro money will push the price hard to give the illusion of a good run.

web platform testing

Greetings all and my long absence has been one of enjoying the summer outdoors while we have it, and also to test out something I have been wishing to try for a long time. I have ended my Windows based trading and moved to a web platform instead. I will say the charts you see here are not my live charts and I have instead selected a popular company brand to show you what the platform is like.

First thing to note is this is a resource hog and it takes considerable CPU processing time, that came as a surprise. I have filtered my charts down to 2 and sometimes one large monitor. Of late all my trading has been long term and I have had no need for using more monitors to get more time frames in front of me. It is a bonus when you can eliminate lower time frames, providing you have the discipline to set some kind of alarm when price reaches an area you are interested in.

Fair warning, the charts I am about to show are full width of my monitors and this could well cause some scroll bars to come into this blog, I will just have to see how it looks and if it need fixing I will depend on some of the web guru's who are here.

A look now at the S&P500. Ah, scroll bar has come. If you all dont like the scroll bar I can reduce the chart size. In fact, let me add the same chart below this one with the reduced size and you can say which you prefer.

The details are all lost on the second file, but for the moment I will continue and find some sense in all this. The two black horizontal lines are near term support and resistance and between them is where a large range setup and held the majority of the trading for a long time. We now have broken out of the range and last week I passed a comment to a friend that this thing is long over due for a deep pull back. Our conversation went further and talk of the real crash being long over due came to the fore. In case some of you dont get that part, the S&P is made up of the top 500 US companies and shows an over all view of that market.

Any company shows a strong share price if the company is doing well, has good sales, hiring new people and expanding etc. But, and here is the real fly in all this. There is no positive economic news from the US and the company share price in my view is being bought into by institutions who are using FED money to get short term gain and the share price is in no way reflected in real economic numbers. Same can be said for Europe.

Keep in the front of your mind all the time, when price is set to collapse, it must first be run up. When price is due to become bullish it must first be marked down. What I see now is price rising with no good reason why it is going up, other than being marked up. Needless to say I would not be long the S&P nor short either, yet.

A closer look on the weekly and see what else we can see. Scroll city again, but at least you can see it.

First thing to pop out is we pretty much hit 2000 and fell back sharply. The last leg looks very weak and taking a long time to get anywhere. Since the break out of the trading range it has taken a lot of effort by the bulls to get prices moving higher. Sensible traders will wait and see where support comes in, if it comes in.

Lastly for the S&P is a daily chart.

Your first glance at a closed candle tends to be your best analysis. What can we see here?

How about the obvious sharp fall followed by break of near term support. Next support is 1900 and the media at that stage will whip up a storm. Our unanswered question is, where will the buyers come back in, or will they come back in at all?

Lets take a look at Oil on the weekly.

With all the mess in the middle east happening the reaction in the price of Oil is.....range bound. There is no panic or interest in Oil trading for higher prices. One reason is Russia, they need a 100 dollar per barrel price and the west is determined to hurt their pocket. But even prior to the mess kicking off, look at the historic price. It has not been rising much and if anything there appears to be potential for more downside coming in. The last two attempts to push price higher failed.

Onto Oil on the daily chart.

We see price gained a little but the reaction by the bears was strong, there is no upside on this chart. At present we are at support and price will dance around here for a while and likely fall further. Look at where the last real buying came in and there is a target pro money will aim for. Getting an entry might be entertaining.

Oil on the 8hr chart. Yes I did say 8hr. One thing I do like about the platform is it has many time frames not seen on MT4 and it is useful to have.

More good information here, note the last attempt by the bulls. It was very strong, sudden and did not have the legs to get anywhere. The bears are clearly in control still and we now see price at near term support, look at current price and then scroll left to see historic demand. I doubt this will hold, but doubts wont make you money and for the moment take note of the price range setup by the buyers and wait.

Last Oil chart on the 15min.

All big moves down and not a bull to be seen. Most commodities need lots of time to get moving and when the move getting in is not easy if you trade near term. The only thing I can add to this chart is price now likely wait for NY open.


Final chart, usd/jpy on the monthly.

Look carefully and you will see current price is at a major support and resistance level. Anything can happen here. In is Japanese policy to reduce the value of their currency against the US Dollar. So far this is working for them and this level is where we may see some big action happen by their central bank. If they dont see price move higher, they may help it on its way. Currencies are manipulated by very deep pockets and dont be under any illusions of countries not acting in their own interests.

There was strong buying off the 80 level here, a possible sign of more upside.

Closing note on the platform, so far I have only used it for live orders, hard stops and manual close. I do not see a take profit setting and it may be that a limit order is used for that purpose instead. The information about the platform and all other web platforms is very sketchy and none I found gave a crystal clear brief breakdown on their use.

The platform is very poor for marking up charts, note all I have posted here do not have anything drawn or written on them. The tools for annotating are poor and do not have enough adjustment. I will have to take a chart pic and use some other program for drawing on them.

I have found the data feed for the web platform is more reliable than MT4. There are also less times when getting and order filled stalls.