Silver walk through

In giving this view of Silver it will be of use for other instruments and reading their charts.

This is the weekly chart of Silver.

The immediate task is to determine if price is in a trend or in a range. What we see was a bearish trend that slowed down, the pulled back up into supply and is now going back in the direction of the original trend. Our bias on this chart on its own is bearish.

Daily chart.


On the left you see a strong move up out of what will look like resistance to day traders and given it lasted a number of days, there will be break out traders, new bullish longs each day and all delighted with their entries. The real danger was in not reading the big picture. The idea was for pro money to get price back into an area where they can filter in more short orders while the herd is in full buy mode. Lots of orders get filled without price moving much against pro money. And that is the ideal place to be. This method has not changed since instruments have been traded. Too many day traders get caught in the moment.

As price made a poor fall away from supply, there was a considerable period of time taken before we eventually reached the most near term demand. But note how the area was pierced deeply. That shows little in the way of bullish support and has setup a small range. Lets dig deeper.

4hr chart.


From this time frame a clearer picture is emerging. We can see price falling and hitting what looks like support. But its support in an unusual place, but never the less we will still call it 'come kind' of support because price did bounce. We also see that the buyers are not there in great numbers based on price action alone. The most recent jump in price where the 2nd last candle shows buying...was no more than pushing price into the supply area. And the very last candle shows sellers stepping in and taking it lower, and from a place where I would expect genuine selling and not herd control by pro money.

There is a range of around 60 points in this and plenty room for the pro's to consider taking it lower. There is nothing to show serious buying and the bias is still bearish.

And finally the 1hr.


This is about the only reasonable attempt I can give on an active market. We clearly see the supply on the top left and reaction to it on the top right. All is behaving normal here and as I type the last candle is near closed and is pushing down to its lows, all good signs of pro selling and the London close is upon me in 10 minutes. Given it is late in the day it wont surprise me to see price go back up with profit taking and the real bearish move happen another day or if the NY session can get back into 1hr supply and then go back down.

There is a small area below current price marked by a red line. I am expecting something to happen here. It is mid range and if we can break it, I hope the horrible price action below it can get taken out and the bottom of the range tested. Ideally in the longer I want to see Silver and Gold fall a good deal further.

It was October 11th when the sellers first showed up and its taken a full week for price to get back there and more selling take place. The time within these two events is when you need to learn to be patient and let price do its thing and work its way into an area where we become interested. You can never force a trade and trying will burn you. Within ranges is also where you do not trade.

The actions of pro money are not complex, they only become active when the price is in their favor and they typical shed orders slowly into mania that the herd react too. Such as break outs that turn out to be false, news events which are complete nonsense and no pro trader ever reacts to them. Little catches pro money off guard.
 

Pro money filter in their orders where you wont see it until price is moved by them. Eventually their activity is so over whelming that they can no longer get more orders placed, or larger orders get placed by additional traders that creates the move away. If you do touch trades you have the highest reward and also the highest risk, if you wait for price to retrace you get a lower reward and a lower risk, but there is pretty much always some form of a pull back or retrace if you wait for it. Such as what we saw in the Silver chart.