Oil

Weekly chart.

The ten mile high view for an overall look at how this commodity is going and near term we see price failing to make new highs and a sharp sell off last week. The green line is my 100 Dollar favorite which Russia likes to see as the price they need to best earn a crust. Or so they like to tell us.

What is plain to see is the lack of pro money buyers taking it higher. Ask your brain a logical question, if pro money were to buy, where on the chart is a place where they have been active before and how close is it to current price that may effect how price will move. This can result in spikes and rapid moves if pro money doesnt have to trade against itself for very long and can take the heat.

It takes a lot of money to stop and turn a moving market, LOTS of money, and that is hard to hide.

Another weekly chart with some new info marked up. The orange line is the nearest resistance we have seen of late and showing some interesting price history. We may see a range develop from this and it would be a good place to see one become established.  On the bottom of the chart is a grey box showing the last place where clear buying from pro money came in, this is marked with an up arrow. This was later tested with the tick mark and is no longer full of bullish orders as it once was. There is no point in guessing if it will cause price to rise again until we get there. Leave speculation to Gamblers.

Daily chart.


Closer on the current price and see how even a brief rise above the orange line was enough to see a strong move away. Not far below is 100 dollars and how I would like to see that be broken in grand style. It would setup some good room for profit below. The lowest orange line is the most attractive area for the bears if they can grow a pair and run with this.

Last up is the 4hr chart.


I put in a combination of longer and shorter term annotations on this chart. On top we can see the retest and the sell off, lower down is a black line where near term demand on the left was broken and turned supply. Hardly a positive sign of pro bulls being interested in taking this any time soon.

Price is rapidly approaching 100 dollars, and you will know by now how I feel about price rapidly approaching an area. It can be friend or foe. Mainly its a good trick for herding and playing with emotions.

Note the green line and where price broken through, came back to test if it would hold and continued up, classic move and makes money if you were there at the time. Imagine if these happened all the time on all time frames.........they mostly do. But the noise of the market clouds most peoples eye.

The last item is the little grey box where a battle took place and the bulls won. It is not a place I would expect major buying next time given the proximity of 100 Dollars and the lack of good targets. And as always, wait for price to reach the area and tell you what the intentions are of pro money.

usd/mxn

Here is a pair I rarely trade and its one of the few pairs with some movement lately, the markets over all are not in a good mood and of course it is also holiday time for some. We trade what we see and know to wait for good setups and not force trades.

Without further fan fare lets get stuck in and look at the ten mile high view on the weekly chart.

I drew a black line at a steep angle upwards, and no, Doc has not lost his mind and using trend lines or other voodoo or witch craft. That is for others who believe in a moving indicator rather than focusing on price which is what causes their magick to move in the first place. Anyways, I digress.

I also drew in an grey box to help show you the origin. Let it not be said I never state the obvious, but unless you are shown this, it could well evade your logical thought process. We hit the origin and price is now winding upward, but it is early days on this time frame.

Weekly Chart.

Daily chart.

The left most black line shows the nice move up clearly showing pro bulls in full control and on a mission for profit. Take note of the steepness of the line and compare it to the right most black line, price clearly had little interest in lower price.....think..bears are not interested and so we drift down until we hit the bullish origin and you can judge the reaction for yourself and who is in control. Getting the principle across is more important than the entries for the moment.

4hr chart.


I spy with my little eye, a resistance area hit today and an ideal place for profit taking and positioning. The second last candle is interesting, the profit taking appears to have been bought into and could be a sign of long orders.....but of course we must wait to see if this is so. It is end of day and end of week and a pull back on Sunday evening for those living in EU/US is likely and London will show us the way on Monday. Would be nice to see a decent move given the quiet time of late......hmm I wonder is it a holiday in London next Monday?

1hr chart.


This chart is here just to show a closer view of price action. The green line is the resistance area and the x candle is target and the certain sell off. Do you see the strong buy back on the arrowed candle?

Price was held up for a few hours and we need to keep in mind the traders intentions and if we get hints on what position is favored. Any pull back has room to allow price unwind down and I can see two clear areas where buyers came in before.

Other things to look out for, more bearish activity in Oil, Gold may be settling into a range and GBP/JPY has reached the top of an old decision from 2008 with very tight choppy range play. That will need resolving and there are good short term targets on either side of price if we get a clean break/pull back and continuation.