EUR/JPY

Monthly chart.


First put obvious areas on the chart to show where price has been and where it is likely headed to for a target. Here we see a rapid and rather violent decline in price and as rapidly left supply, it approached demand in a sheepish manner. Note how price slowed down and wound itself into tighter falling ranges as demand loomed close. This happens on all times frames and while it is not the only approach used, it tells us a story. Here it meant the pro's were waiting for the time to reverse the market after a large drop in price, the best time to do it. Once the emotional card is played the herd will follow blindly.

The reversal came almost as swift as the decline and only human thinking causes this. Something will fall in price faster than it rises, humans are by nature negative when it comes to value.

From this chart we know that where price is now, its path is still bullish and the target has enough free space about the most recent supply to still be wide enough for profit to interest pro money.

Weekly chart.


At the bottom of the chart is the box showing demand and the obvious move up from that. The blue line shows us where price has in the very recent past found enough buyers to allow a clean and obvious place to move away from. The small box above that blue line is a decision point where price hesitated after it broke the small recent supply as well. This was a test to see will sellers come back into the market and this is also done on all time frames and all markets, it will be done in other places too to test for the strength of the opposing force. Its a smart way to get in at low cost, and get out at low cost if your wrong. Only pro money will do this because the herd and neither organised or have sufficient funds to keep a move going.

Above price is thin box showing the next batch of sell orders. There is nothing to hold us up if we wanted to take this long after we see some kind of support and continuation. 650 odd points is a good profit margin no matter what your account size once its traded sensibly. But before price goes up, it first has to come down and the same holds true for opposite trade.

Daily chart.


The most commonly viewed time frame in trading, its closing price is telling.

The only new item drawn on this chart is a blue line, it was not possible to see this level of detail on higher tinme frames and it gives us some more intel. It shows up price hit a tiny but significant enough supply area to stop price in its tracks and send it off into a range for a few days. We also see price made a second attempt to push through and once again at an even lower price than the blue was enough to send it back for the past two trading days.

Now the pro's are left with a situation where pushign hard from here could cost a lot of money and then will could try a exploit the weakness of the herd. They could sell short from here for a day or two, three etc.....and once price hits the lower box, buy into this and send it back up with enough very low cost long orders and build enough momentum to get through the blue line.

Given price is now in a range and the longer it stays in the range, the more spectacular the break will be. The bulls dont have the advantage here yet given there is still some supply over head and until thats broken they have a hard job. Another trick that would also work is a large spike through the rest of supply and close lower. That will clear out the last of the short orders and stop out the same orders once the pull back is deep enough. You can do great things in the market if you have the wallet for it.

4hr chart.


The last comment I made above is fleshed out a little here. If price cant push though the blue line then it can come back down the bottom of the range shown by the black line and see can it find more long orders to push higher, or better again is to break that line and get more folks short and bring it down as close as possible to the lower box. The herd will at this stage be fully commited short allowing enough time and orders to go long placed into that selling.

There is around 110 points between the line and the top of the box and that can be stretched into what will look like a very convincing few days of selling.

US Dollar

Some heads up on the US Dollar. Here is the weekly chart on the USD index and something is starting to come undone. Note the run up, it looks as parabolic as many currencies did prior to the crash. Some of this move has been supported by policy where injections of cash into the economy has removed much of the incentive to short. Perhaps until now.

You can see clear change in pace by the bulls and no new highs made for some time, and also look at their last attempt to make a new high. It was sold inot strongly by bears who have been missing in the market for a long time and now start showing up. It is obvious that any further attempts by pro money to take this higher is going to result in a major bear/bull fight and will cost a pretty penny.

The last candle shows the week closed on a bear candle with some buying/profit taking into the close. Some retracement up from here for further short selling would be wise, the herd will need convincing this is not falling and get major media outlets to pimp it accordingly. The big picture is not one where I can see a buying opportunity for some time until prices reaches much lower prices.

Any potential short that setup have clear targets below. The lowest one is the origin of this move and any bounce there may well fizzle out because such a drop in price wont see many buyers coming in.

Daily chart.


A, no new high and immediate selling.
B, bears counter bullish buying immediately.
C, retest of the B move, success.
D, Broke what was historic buying.
E, to the left and down a little. even this buying has been broken.

Box on the very bottom is the last place for buying to come back in and as yet its too early to judge. But would you be a buyer when you look left on this time frame and higher?

4hr chart.


This is about as close as makes sense at the moment. C, on top shows how quickly the bulls got wiped out. There are lots of places where bulls could have reacted but all we see is bears fully in control.

The black line on the bottom shows near term demand resulted in a very small rally on the last trading day of the week. And even this has closed into its mini demand area with no concivtion or follow through to make a new high.

Tie all this intel with all the other currencies against the US Dollar and you will soon find out if major turns in the market are setting up. I get the feeling that the Greek deal will be the news that will hide any fact of the obvious happening and have something to blame it on, rather than it being normal market forces.

Order flow is not spoken about much in the media, its too boring and too obvious. Sensional news stories is what sells.

I dont post trades anymore, but here is just one to show that there are opportunities even when forex has yet setup with good trades. 32, S&P500 shorts and target just about there. Small time frame trades like that are littered on all charts.

eur/gbp

Had some time away from the posting to catch up on other things and time I answered some emails here rather than individually which would take a long time.

If you cannot see where to look for entries and still need help, review my old posts. There is plenty information in those posts, and no I cant tell you where to enter or why, yout trading decision is yours and yours alone.

No, I do no offer a signals service and have none I can suggest to you. Learn to trade yourself and be self sufficient for life.

Mentorship is not something I do.

Onwards...........


Monthly chart  of eur/gpb.

indicator line shows what price has been waiting for, back to the source of the move to fill more long orders. The bearish move has been halted and the early signs on this time frame of a possible turn are showing. This is my ten mile high view.

Weekly chart.


Following on from the above chart we can see prices reaction and the first reasonable bullish move take place. Price then hit near term supply and fell back again into what may become the final place for pro money to go long. So far they are showing interest. They will also know there are less sell orders nearby and it should be an easier ride up to the next supply area, which has already been spiked and if that is broken, it will also break a range and leave plenty room for upside profit. Round figures of .77 for that target.

Daily chart.


A closer in view of pricer action. It is very obvious we have not made lower lows and we have made one higher high on the 7th of May. While price did drop off from here, the higher high is a significant event to be mindful of.

4hr chart.


Marked is recent supply and a horizontal line showing a good area to watch. The second last candle here has punched well into and through supply, but look at the reaction. Very little interest from the bears.

1hr chart.


Again I show the candle that has pierced through supply and the lack of selling taking place in what would normally be a treasure trove of short orders waiting to be filled. The time was not ideal, but the NY session was and still is in full flow as I type this and still no appearance of any bears. Hmmm.

5 min chart.


As an added measure to drive this home to you some more, can anyone see the selling in the box?.....I cant.

If we see a break test and continuation tomorrow, there will be plenty scope for profit about with a target far enough away from pro money to be keen on exploiting. The exploited will of course be the retail trader and wait for any potential entries to be crystal clear and where it is best to see them i.e above current price and no doubt about direction.

One final comment, a lot of effort (money) has gone into that spike up that you can see. Someone wants a pay day for that and its presence where it is telling a story. Normally I like to see a supply area such as this hit hard and into the area by a good margin. This allows pro money hide the fact that they are very active here. And yes we see activity, but no follow through long or short. But look at what you see, the spike did not bring in sellers which I/we would have expected.

When we dont see happen what we expect, it is time to watch and wait. And while you wait there are numerous questions you ask of yourself. If I were pro money and spent all that money on the large spike to go short, and did not go short. What purpose was the spike and how will I make money back and with profit?

We know that in order to have any good movement in price we need pro money to push it, and that happens by getting plenty orders filled in places where the majority of the herd will see the opposite picture. There are places on this chart where price could show that to the herd. A mini sell off would be useful, but knowing we had two opportunities on the daily, and each failed to push lower, any short position would be unwise unless there is a break of the daily low chart with a failed pull back. The Euro is also gaining strength against many currencies and great care needed in case one is biased to only being short.