Silver

My 10 mile view of Silver and more of a follow up to a post I made on Silver not long ago. Here is the monthly chart as a starting point.

The older post shows much lower interest and as you can see here even a few weeks makes all the difference and seeing this ahead of time and with enough patience is where it pays off. There is a little more time before the monthly candle prints closed and for the moment we note what is displayed to us and know trading is about what you see and not what you think.

Next up is the weekly chart.

Lower line is historic buying and of great significance, commodities do not move with such erratic moves as Forex and getting entries is much easier and many stocks are also much easier to find entries. The draw back with Commodities and Stocks is you wait longer periods of time for entries and the Forex volatility gives more opportunities and with entries that are harder to spot.

The upper line is an area of interest due to price reacting here many times in the past and its sets up a support and resistance area for the future. The candle marked X is where a decision was taken to break support and some buying came in resulting in a tail. The two further breaks lower all resulted in buying which indicated there was no desire by pro money to hit the historic buying area with too much violence in price action where holding would have been much harder.

When price eventually touched historic buying it came in pretty much on cue and the subsequent pull back was time consuming and with no wild bearish activity, all good news for pro bulls. The retest of the original move up is classic and now we see buyers loading up, all that patience to wait to see will the bears fizzle out and a retest to see if the bulls will take it paid off. Now we look for what else is shown to us. The middle line drawn is the tail of the candle that broke support support, those who went short there will now be covering and the start of this reaction is happening now. On a lower frame I will show you this.

Here is the daily chart. The lower and upper lines are in place to show a range that has been established and also where the last few candle clustered on the right of the picture show the reaction to the candle I mentioned above. At the moment there is no sign of bearish interest and the bulls are holding price. Nothing further will be known until the market opens after the weekend and we wait for clear direction.

4 hour chart. The holding move is very obvious here with any fade being bought into. Dont be lulled into a false sense of security and think this is going to result into a push through resistance and a continuation. It is possible price can be push back into the break to take out weak holders, get day traders short and reverse later on. There is a lot of clear area below price where its profitable enough for a short term reverse to happen. Keep an open mind and do not be set in a direction until its proven to be real.

Lower in the this chart is a another nice long entry where the down arrow shows a strong bullish candle that pulled in shorts, price was not taken lower and soon after another candle marked with an up arrow shows bulls coming back in strongly and off the price that they were keen on earlier. It was unlikely for shorts to come in now given they have been taken out on the first arrowed candle and other short attempts all bought into.

1hr chart. On the top of this chart you can see price holding in a range which is the reaction to the price break I showed on the higher time frames. The bulls still have the edge on price. Lower in the chart I drew a small line that shows a break of a small range and a retest. Price pushed though and came back to touch the line on a single candle and setup a bearish candle with a tail, but when formed in this area and with that price action this candle is bullish even though its printer as a bearish candle. Trading is full on contradictions if you follow a rule set and not use your logical brain. The colour of the candle is not relevant, but how the candle looks and where it forms is vital intel.

30 min chart. A little closer in on price action to help train your eyes. The same line is in place and the retest is very subtle. There will be many times when you wont see wicks or tails on all time frames and another reason you check all time frames on each successive candle close on that time frame. We are lucky here in that there is a candle with a tail and even later there was a slow pull back where another entry could have been taken depending on your capital/risk etc.

15min chart. And at the risk of getting into noisy charts this is a closer view on price action on the 15 min chart. The same line is still in place and the x candle is bearish and could have been a reversal and why we wait for the reaction, which in this case was strongly bullish, off newly established short term support, the top of a range and engulfed the bearish test. All strong signs of Silver going long. Even on this break the pull back already mentioned is now visible here as yet more testing and more bullish activity. There will have been plenty day traders who took this right up into resistance and closed off with a nice profit.

I will spare you a 5 and 1 min chart and protect your sanity. It is far more difficult to see how a trade can work out if you focus in too close and become a hypnotic junky for the right most candle tugging on those emotions.