EUR/USD

A new month and some Euro action showing signs of promise. Overall the Euro is bearish against USD and we are getting closer to what may be a final leg down. I have a very long term chart here showing the monthly time frame and where I expect to see a target on lower time frames.

The media will as I suspect play down the Euro to allow enough negative sentiment built around the currency and all commentators come out with silly talk of the Euro is a failed experiment, a failed monetary union and all sorts of other TV fodder. Pro money requires news to be bad and getting worse in order for price to fall to where they want it.

On this chart I have two small lines showing a clear area of buying back in 2002. What is unimportant is the time that has elapsed since the buying. It doesnt change history and where pro money felt the Euro was a good deal and bought into it hard for years.

Note an expected price range where support could have been established. This failed in dramatic fashion in late 2014. There is good intel from that fact, the Euro fails to gain support and therefore has to fall further and will do so into the next area of support and we are looking to short into that on lower time frames.


Now on to the weekly.

You can see where price blew through the area where support was likely to form. Price races away below and on this time frame has set into an approx 1000 point range. There was one large spike out of the top of this range and this achieved a number of goals. It got day trades long when there was no pro money support to be long, they same folks will have been stopped out, and any shorts from it will have been bored out of the market with weeks of poor price action. The net result was low cost short orders from pro money. Their efforts are clearly seen a little later with a brief retest out of the top of the range and a rapid retraction. The following day price collapses as one would expect.

The best trade in that range was the one I just mentioned and it pinned demand at the bottom of the range cleanly. At present we see a painful rise higher into that old supply, but it will become a weaker area to sell from and price action will become very choppy. Right now we are falling from near term supply and getting clean price action and targets will get harder the longer we stay inside this range.

 Next up is the daily.


I have marked up where price reached near term supply and has sold off. Also where it hit demand below, but the demand there looks weak to me and higher quality demand lay further down. To get there, price has a real mess to go down through.

Ultimately I want to see the bottom of this big range fail and price break through and continue with its long term bearish path in order to see a much longer term cycle in the Euro start from clean untouched prices for many years.
 

Final chart of the 4hr.


This is as close as I wish to go for the moment and even here price is looking very tired and taking laboured movements towards supply and demand. Over head there is some supply and none of it is real quality. The only good news I see on this time frame is that the best of the quality demand is all gone on the left. 

Something to remember, when you see daily price moves and daily squabbling that is meant to be news, all this is nothing but noise and taking any of it as the truth will put you on a loosing path. The media is not there to give you trading advice and you must be your own judge based on what the charts tell you. The media has to make money daily by conducting daily analysis.

Keep the big picture charts in mind at all times, they dont lie and dont have the intraday noise of unimportant news and commentators who make money by selling news.