You can see clear change in pace by the bulls and no new highs made for some time, and also look at their last attempt to make a new high. It was sold inot strongly by bears who have been missing in the market for a long time and now start showing up. It is obvious that any further attempts by pro money to take this higher is going to result in a major bear/bull fight and will cost a pretty penny.
The last candle shows the week closed on a bear candle with some buying/profit taking into the close. Some retracement up from here for further short selling would be wise, the herd will need convincing this is not falling and get major media outlets to pimp it accordingly. The big picture is not one where I can see a buying opportunity for some time until prices reaches much lower prices.
Any potential short that setup have clear targets below. The lowest one is the origin of this move and any bounce there may well fizzle out because such a drop in price wont see many buyers coming in.
Daily chart.
A, no new high and immediate selling.
B, bears counter bullish buying immediately.
C, retest of the B move, success.
D, Broke what was historic buying.
E, to the left and down a little. even this buying has been broken.
Box on the very bottom is the last place for buying to come back in and as yet its too early to judge. But would you be a buyer when you look left on this time frame and higher?
4hr chart.
This is about as close as makes sense at the moment. C, on top shows how quickly the bulls got wiped out. There are lots of places where bulls could have reacted but all we see is bears fully in control.
The black line on the bottom shows near term demand resulted in a very small rally on the last trading day of the week. And even this has closed into its mini demand area with no concivtion or follow through to make a new high.
Tie all this intel with all the other currencies against the US Dollar and you will soon find out if major turns in the market are setting up. I get the feeling that the Greek deal will be the news that will hide any fact of the obvious happening and have something to blame it on, rather than it being normal market forces.
Order flow is not spoken about much in the media, its too boring and too obvious. Sensional news stories is what sells.
I dont post trades anymore, but here is just one to show that there are opportunities even when forex has yet setup with good trades. 32, S&P500 shorts and target just about there. Small time frame trades like that are littered on all charts.
Hello Doc,
ReplyDeletethank you very much for this post.
The daily chart. Why did you mark the lvl at D as important and not the one little below it? At 23 februar.
Regards
Distinction
If you look at the area below D and then left, you will see where I put E. Always consider where orders come in and if they came in recently or if price has not been there for a long time.
ReplyDeleteWhen an area where buying was likely to come in resulted in more selling, there is no willingness among pro money to buy and lower prices will follow. Then you look for order flow on larger time frames.
E may get picked up when price hits or enters the lowest box, it is in the correct place for it to happen.
Hi there,
ReplyDeleteI´m interested in the trade on the SP500 you posted. All the higher time frames are bullish, I assume you took that trade on the 19th? So the daily took out recent supply the 4h bullish as well. Where you took the trade I can see a breakdown on the Hourly and a bearish 15min. with a faild retracement. Correct?
For me it looked like a test for sellers who didn´t show up. Also, I don´t really see pro money coming in at this point in time.
In you´re newly posted EUR/JPY post you referred to daytrading. So, when you actually daytrade you sort of bend the rules (if I may say so).
Sometimes I´m getting a little confused when you put so much emphasis on the unwinding of All The Time Frames, sometimes I feel though you don´t wait for that. Was that an "advanced" trade?
Can you say a little bit about your intentions taking this trade?
Many Thanks
ReplyDeleteYes trade taken on the 19th and my own twist on it to see if anyone would pickup on leaving it run after coming so close to the target. The trade was closed once the pic was taken, leaving profit on the table like that over a weekend makes no sense. I didnt get a single email or post about it, whereas in the past I would. A good sign I hope.
Price was heading lower to fill more long orders in an attempt to make new highs. It is having a real hard time making any head way and running out of steam. I wont take the S&P500 for some time yet, other markets look better today.
Bending the rules is in reality applying what dones on lower time frames with an eye on the higher time frames. All these time frames will line up and unwind as each part of the buying and selling from pro money line up.
At the moment I want to see the eur/jpy come back a lot more before I would buy it. Then any long must come of good support.
I see. That´s kinda what I thought. The unwind happens all the time in both directions.
ReplyDeleteI didn´t see anything that suggests real selling on the higher time frames though.
I guess I´ll stick to our "usual rules2 for now:::))
Regards
Refering to your trade again. Actually, I can see an unwind on the higher time frames happening. Every now and then I have really good pictures in my head regarding trading. It actually happened yesterday night in bed:). Everything was so clear then. That trade you posted might have helped me took a large step forward again.
ReplyDeleteI think I understand now why it is so hard to put into words, the picture is in my head but it it hard to describe. Those trades can happen in the zones we marked on our charts or in between them, while price is travelling in between them !!??
There´s not really a right or wrong, it depends on us how many time frames we want to have alligned. The bigger ones are easier to trade (at least for at this moment) because there are less time frames above them.
Also, that trade of yours made me realize how quick everything happens. I think I always wait for to much confirmation, and then it´s already over, we have to react instantly. Hope that makes sense, if yes maybe you understand what I´m trying to say here.
Regards
Perhaps you are gotten the light bulb moment, the one time when many hours of looking at charts logically has paid off and you can see how the market works. You will soon know if you are correct because your analysis on lower time frames will start to gel with the big picture and all of this starts making sense everywhere. It is a big moment for those who get it. I have had a few folks who reading this blog who privately told me they have had the 'moment'.
ReplyDeleteFrom the 'moment' all you need to be is consistant with your approach and trading becomes profitable for the rest of your life. No other job pays nearly as well as trading once you can keep the bulb shining!
If you have any doubts, paper trade for a minimum of six months and if you see profits for six months, it means you are ready for live trading. Just prove to yourself what you are experiencing is reality and not luck.
Great advice again, I´ll keep it up thanks for doing this
DeleteRegards
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteChristianFx is it possible comunication with you over e-mail?
ReplyDeleteXman
yes i have gotten that "ah ha" moment some time ago. this blog was instrumental in that. it has made trading so easy, and seeing what the MMs are doing easy to read. thanks a lot doc for all your hard work in making traders out of us all. i pass on my knowledge as well, making traders out of many.
ReplyDeleteI am still waiting for my light bulb moment. I hope it will come one day for me too. For now no lucky for me. Just bzzzz from all that time frame and confuzion. If anyone have some idea or method or anything else what could help me, please. :(
ReplyDeleteUnknown=xman
ReplyDeleteDraw on your charts where the orders are in the highest quantities, watch for reaction when price comes back into those areas. The time taken for the reaction and the time taken for the pull backs later on are all very telling on how pro money think at the time.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI´m sorry didn´t see you were writing xman
ReplyDeleteI´m not really keen giving out my address here, not because I don´t want to talk to you.People would refer to me saying I said this and that and would start a riot here. Also, I don´t have anything else to say other than the man himself. Anything I could tell you, you´ve already been told here. I don´t have more insight.
ReplyDeleteI don´t know how long you´ve been doing with. I´ve been with the man for some time now. It takes time. What I can say maybe up until now the concepts were sort of static to me. Meaning when I saw it it most often already happend. I think I´m starting to see the let me call it "real time effect", meaning I´m able to see the unwind in real time. Maybe that helps. Yes, it takes time for the unwind to happen, but when it actually happens you need to act and see in real time.
Doc, Christian..
ReplyDeleteThanks for responde on my help call. I have been with blog and RTM jurnal for some time (2 years). Have the same issue like Christian with static/dinamic concepts, mean see after things already happen. I think that I now a lot, and sea a lot, but but but...missing something, some bulb moment for complitly picture. Easy to lose on the chart and time frames.