Weekly chart.
Blue line is weekly supply/resistance. The down arrow shows a test of the historic price action on the hard left edge of the chart. That test resulted in little interest from the bears and an immediate reply from the bulls with obvious buying coming in over a few sessions.
Daily chart.
I now have two blue lines to show more recent price action and where support could come in. The bounce shows classic buying from the place I want to see it most, off support and where the intention is clear. You wont always see price action so clear on all time frames and its best to take your lead off multiple time frames. Clear for all to see is the buying with strong and immediate response to any bearish activity. There was a long wait for such long trades if you had missed the entries months ago.
4hr chart.
These were the three entries I took and scaled into the position. My stop was below the swings and not much risk involved. You can see how much effort went into taking price higher by the bulls, they had to allow price come back down low several times before enough orders were to the long side and where they had enough reserve to give price one hard push over 4hrs to break through resistance and take the heat of short orders, note the instant pull back, they really wanted price out and gone from this area quickly.
I closed all positions manually a few hours before the market close. Now it is a matter of wait and see how far price will come back and look for more long entries. One other thing I will point out is the false bearish move before my left most entry. If that didnt get you short and you saw the bullish reaction, there was a good sign of who was in control and that more was likely to come if you wait.
Awesome trades here Doc.
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming you were looking for a reaction near the 109.500 price area as that was some historic (Monthly on my charts) resistance?
I'll be looking for PA around the 106.700-107.400 area for support coming in from the strong Bullish move the last few weeks. If the bulls can prevail, it's seems 120-130 is the range they want to take this too long term outlook.
Danny
Hi Doc nice to see you arround, can we post charts too? How can we do that i have a question to make about your cad trade but more dicult whithout the chart
ReplyDeleteWelcome back Doc;)
ReplyDeleteAmazing trades as always!
Well, I spotted the last one. For the first two, i can see how strong psychology u hv to keep holding positions when pullbacks occur.
Thank u for sharing!
Doc, I appreciate your quick responses to my questions. So here´s another one if I may. I was wondering when to use support/resistance and when to use supply/demand.
ReplyDeleteI know the difference, but sometimes you enter off of support/resistance (Daily chart), sometimes you use supply/demand points or the source of a move. I´m wondering when you look for what if that sense?
Greetings
The entry is down to personal choice and how comfortable you are with the stop loss cost and the intel you are using to gauge the entry. I know some people will enter solely on the basis of an area being historic buying/selling and others enter with the price history and current price action.
ReplyDeleteI look at price over a number of candles on several time frames and get a feel for how the pro's are playing this. The time of day is a determining factor and if it is the day prior to a holiday/weekend or the day after one. I keep a calender of events handy and also keep tabs on the quarter roll over.